yeah nobody will answer your question because it could be anytime. Even if somebody did find a way around it they wouldn't be telling all the glory details on the world biggest satellite forum lol, things like that are best kept quiet.
They is a few things under development, florikey is a good piece of software but sadly doesn't include nagra3 unfortunetly but good for the keys.
As for cracking it its abit like finding life on mars, it might happen next time NASSA launch the next spacecraft to there or it may take another 10 or 20 years it really is that random.
As you have noticed it on ly takes a second for a channel to remain black, nobody on this forum knows info about everything so what i would say is this:
Do what i do, sit back and wait, nothing else you can do at the minute but the way its going in 2 or 3 years i may have to start subscribing to things.
I just check the channels every few days to see if it has become open again and believe you me if somebody did creack it you would soon know about it, you wouldn't have to ask on here.