I'd say that Sky will get 80% this time....after all, Sky Sports channels are on cable networks so the desired coverage is met and pentration is good enough to actually make money.
Watch how hard Sky makes it for another carrier to get footy up there. No option FTA, Sky controls the PPV (I believe, certainly the encryption). Just how successful is Setanta with their sport channels?
And of course, I have motives in wanting Sky to keep it. Or for TPSCrypt to live on