Analoguesat said:
There are only two groups of channels likely to go fta anytime soon.
Fiver / +1, Five US / +1 and the currently encrypted C5 regions.
The currently encrypted ITV regions.
Anything else is pure speculation.
The thing about Motors is that they were fta when I got into satellite, and were fta for several years.
Theres certainly not going to be a rush of encrypted channels going fta just because theres narrow beam capacity available. The economics dont make any sense for the channels.
SES will lease capacity to anyone who desires it and can provide the necessary paperwork and cheque. From the contracts already announced we know ITV have 3 1N tp's and C4 have one.
You also have to remember that most of the smaller channels dont lease their own capacity - they are various intermediaries such as Arqiva, BT and Globecast who provide them capacity.
I'm eagerly awaiting the C5 transponder to move over to 1N too however it's been reported that ITV are apparently closing a number of their micro-regions at the end of the year (TT South, Central S are apparently confirmed). If they decide to close a couple more and move the ITV1HD London off 10832H then they may migrate the remaining 12402V and 11973V sub-regions over to 10832H thus saving them a transponder. 10832H could support another six SD regions if the ITV1HD London feed was moved to one of their new 1N TP's.
My bet a the moment is that Sky Integration are doing various tests using 8PSK and C4HD. Not wanting to be a cynic here but I'd guess they are cleverly playing "their last gatekeeping stand" in terms of delaying the launch of the C4HD, and other services, on 1N. I can tell you for a fact that this was the case with the EB1 C4HD service, they tinkered with FEC's and SR's for nearly 4wks before their EPG was switched across (and it subsequently went FTA).
Lets hope that at least some of the existing SD channel changeovers such as C5's, if retaining the same frequency, FEC and SR's, then will simply be able to migrate over without much hassle from Sky and they can get 5* and 5US on to Freesat.